NZ election 2026 insights

Neither side has a majority at the poll average

With every party on its poll average and every electorate going to its favourite, Parliament has 125 seats, so 63 are needed to govern: National 37, Labour 34, Green 18, ACT 12, NZ First 12, Te Pāti Māori 4, Opportunity 8.

The National-led side (National, ACT and NZ First) has 61 seats, 2 short. The Labour-led side (Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori) has 56 seats, 7 short. The kingmakers have 8.

Run thousands of simulations from the poll average to see how often each side gets there.

Opportunity sits on the 5% line, and its seats decide who governs

Opportunity is at or above 5% in 12 of the 14 polls since 1 September, ranging from 4.5% to 8%, with an average of 6.34%. It has no electorate it's likely to win, so below 5% it gets no seats at all.

At the poll average it wins 8 seats. See what happens if it backs the Labour-led side or the National-led side.

Overhang makes Parliament 125 seats, not 120

At the poll average, Te Pāti Māori wins 4 electorates but its party vote earns 2 seats, adding 2; National wins 37 electorates but its party vote earns 34 seats, adding 3. Every extra seat raises the number needed to govern, which is why the Māori electorates matter so much. See the Māori electorates.

40 electorates change the size of the House

No single electorate changes who governs at the poll average, but in 40 of them a win for the runner-up adds or removes an overhang seat, which moves the majority line.

The ten closest electorates

Gap between the top two candidates' chances at the poll average:

• Takanini: Rima Nakhle (National) starts 3 points ahead
• Wellington Bays: Julie Anne Genter (Green) starts 3 points ahead
• East Cape: Dana Kirkpatrick (National) starts 4 points ahead
• Hamilton East: Ryan Hamilton (National) starts 4 points ahead
• Mount Roskill: Michael Wood (Labour) starts 4 points ahead
• Auckland Central: Chlöe Swarbrick (Green) starts 7 points ahead
• Whanganui: Carl Bates (National) starts 7 points ahead
• Northcote: Shanan Halbert (Labour) starts 8 points ahead
• Mount Albert: Helen White (Labour) starts 11 points ahead
• Tāmaki: Mahesh Muralidhar (National) starts 11 points ahead

11 electorates are likely to change hands

• Banks Peninsula: National held it after 2023; Tracey McLellan (Labour) is now favourite
• Hutt South: National held it after 2023; Ginny Andersen (Labour) is now favourite
• Kapiti: National held it after 2023; Sophie Handford (Labour) is now favourite
• Maungakiekie: National held it after 2023; Priyanca Radhakrishnan (Labour) is now favourite
• Mount Roskill: National held it after 2023; Michael Wood (Labour) is now favourite
• Northcote: National held it after 2023; Shanan Halbert (Labour) is now favourite
• Tāmaki: ACT held it after 2023; Mahesh Muralidhar (National) is now favourite
• Wairarapa: National held it after 2023; Kieran McAnulty (Labour) is now favourite
• Waitākere: National held it after 2023; Vanushi Walters (Labour) is now favourite
• Te Tai Tokerau: Te Pāti Māori held it after 2023; Hūhana Lyndon (Green) is now favourite
• Te Tai Tonga: Te Pāti Māori held it after 2023; Mananui Ramsden (Labour) is now favourite

How much the polls disagree

Across the 14 polls since 1 September. A single poll can sit anywhere in this range, which is why the forecast lets you pick any of them or the average. See every poll.