Updates

Polls and dataSite updates

28 Oct, 8:07am Added the RNZ–Reid Research poll (20–26 Oct).
27 Oct, 9:49pm Electorate chances are back to the earlier figures while the new estimated-vote model is checked further. The updated seat notes and sources stay.
27 Oct, 7:15pm Every electorate's chances rechecked against the 2023 results, 2026 electorate polls and news, with sources for each seat. Safe seats are now rated as safe, so National wins more electorates than its party vote entitles it to.
27 Oct, 6:24pm Added the 1News–Verian poll released on 27 October. It's now the default.
23 Oct, 10:45am Kerrin Leoni has resigned as Labour's candidate in Tāmaki Makaurau and is now counted as an independent.
20 Oct, 7:31pm Every electorate poll is now linked on its seat card, and some poll figures were corrected.

29 Oct, 9:19am Compare polls: leave any poll out of the weighted average, or weight a pollster up, down or off.
29 Oct, 9:06am The forecast now starts from the weighted average of the polls rather than the latest single poll. Compare polls also works properly on phones.
28 Oct, 8:41am Compare polls: every poll charted by party, a weighted average that counts recent polls more and stops one pollster outweighing the rest, and settings to change it.
28 Oct, 1:41am Feedback now goes through a short form at the bottom of the page, with no account needed.
28 Oct, 12:46am A new menu bar across the site, with updates split into polls and site changes. Election night live opens with a demo until polls close, and you can add a reminder to your calendar.
27 Oct, 10:40pm New: election night live, a page that follows the count on 7 November, projects the next Parliament and helps you call each seat. Try a demo night now.

Before results Loading the count…

Election day: Saturday 7 November 2026

Remind me

Election night live

The count as it comes in, and the Parliament it points to.

Who will govern

Working out the projection…

How this works