Kapiti electorate: 2026 candidates and forecast
General electorate. Held by National after the 2023 election. Voting closes on Saturday 7 November 2026.
Candidates with a realistic chance
| Candidate | Party | Chance of winning* |
|---|---|---|
| Sophie Handford | Labour | 60% |
| Tim Costley | National | 35% |
| Penny Gaylor | NZ First | 3% |
| Melody Willis | Green | 2% |
Also standing: Chee-Khiang Sng (Opportunity), Michael Walker (Progressive Aotearoa), Richard Goode (Not A Party).
* Our starting chances when the party vote matches the poll average, before the simulation adds polling error. They come from the 2023 result, retirements and the electorate polls below. The forecast adjusts them to whichever poll you pick.
See Kapiti in the live forecastWhat we know
Reinstated seat: Ōtaki (National by 6,271 votes, 14 points, in 2023) less Horowhenua, plus Porirua's northern suburbs. Two polls disagree: Community Engagement, described as Labour-aligned (29–31 Jul, n=821), Handford (Labour) 37.5, Costley (National) 33.6; Curia (Sep, reported by The Post), Costley 43, Handford 36.
Sources: Wikipedia: Kapiti electorate, Wikipedia: 2026 electorate polls, The Post: Kāpiti on a knife edge, 1News: The 15 seats that will decide this election.
Why Kapiti matters
Electorate seats decide who sits in Parliament, but the party vote decides how many seats each party gets. An electorate can still change the result: it can bring in a party that's under 5%, or add overhang seats that raise the number needed to govern. The seat forecast shows how often that happens.
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