NZ election 2026 polls
Every national party-vote poll for the New Zealand general election on 7 November 2026, newest fieldwork first. The latest is 1News–Verian, 22–26 Oct: National 29%, Labour 27%, Green 15%, ACT 12%, NZ First 10%, Opportunity 6%, Te Pāti Māori 0.1%.
Party vote, %. "Seats" opens the seat forecast for that poll: thousands of simulated elections, every electorate and every party list.
| Poll (fieldwork) | NationalNAT | LabourLAB | GreenGRN | ACTACT | NZ FirstNZF | Te Pāti MāoriTPM | OpportunityOPP | Weight in the average, % | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weighted average of the 14 polls since 1 September | 27.8 | 28.6 | 14.8 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 100 | Seats |
| 1News–Verian, 22–26 Oct | 29 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 0.1 | 6 | 16 | Seats |
| RNZ–Reid, 20–26 Oct | 24.8 | 30.6 | 14.5 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 7.2 | 24 | Seats |
| 1News–Verian, 15–19 Oct | 32 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 0.7 | 7 | 10 | Seats |
| Freshwater, 9–19 Oct | 27.6 | 28.7 | 14.3 | 9 | 11.8 | 2 | 5.4 | 13 | Seats |
| 1News–Verian, 8–12 Oct | 28 | 28 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 0.4 | 8 | 6 | Seats |
| Anacta, 6–10 Oct | 28 | 29 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 9 | Seats |
| Curia, 1–5 Oct | 28.5 | 28.2 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 12 | 1.4 | 4.8 | 6 | Seats |
| 1News–Verian, 1–5 Oct | 29 | 28 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 0.6 | 7 | 4 | Seats |
| RNZ–Reid, 24 Sep–1 Oct | 25.9 | 30.8 | 14.8 | 9 | 10.6 | – | 5.5 | 4 | Seats |
| 1News–Verian, 23–27 Sep | 28 | 28 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 1.2 | 6 | 2 | Seats |
| Roy Morgan, 31 Aug–27 Sep | 31 | 23.5 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 6.5 | 2 | Seats |
| Freshwater, 4–11 Sep | 27 | 28 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 1 | Seats |
| Anacta, 4–10 Sep | 30 | 31 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | Seats |
| Curia, 1–3 Sep | 29 | 25.9 | 13.9 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 2 | 4.5 | 1 | Seats |
| RNZ–Reid, 14–21 Aug | 29.1 | 32.2 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 3 | 5.3 | – | Seats |
| Roy Morgan, Jul–Aug | 31 | 24 | 15.5 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 9.5 | – | Seats |
| 1News–Verian, 8–11 Aug | 29 | 30 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 1.1 | 8 | – | Seats |
| Talbot Mills, 1–11 Aug | 29 | 34 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 5.2 | – | Seats |
| Curia, 1–4 Aug | 31 | 27.8 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 1.5 | 6.1 | – | Seats |
The average is the same weighted average the forecast offers: the polls taken since 1 September, each counting less the older it is (its weight halves every 10 days before the newest poll), and each pollster's polls sharing their weight (each counts one over the square root of that pollster's number of polls), so a pollster that polls every week doesn't outweigh the rest. A dash means the pollster didn't publish a figure for that party, or a poll from before 1 September, which isn't counted.
What these polls mean for seats
A party needs 5% of the party vote or an electorate to win seats, and seats are shared out with the Sainte-Laguë formula. Electorate wins can push Parliament past 120 seats. The seat forecast works all of that out for any poll, and lets you test what happens if Opportunity, Te Pāti Māori or a close electorate goes either way. You can also look up every electorate.