Te Tai Tonga electorate: 2026 candidates and forecast
Māori electorate. Held by Te Pāti Māori after the 2023 election. Voting closes on Saturday 7 November 2026.
Candidates with a realistic chance
| Candidate | Party | Chance of winning* |
|---|---|---|
| Mananui Ramsden | Labour | 55% |
| Lisa Marie Murch | Te Pāti Māori | 20% |
| Tākuta Ferris | Independent | 13% |
| Lisa Te Morenga | Green | 12% |
Also standing: Christine Fisher (NZ Loyal), Tania Henare (Legalise Cannabis).
* Our starting chances when the party vote matches the poll average, before the simulation adds polling error. They come from the 2023 result, retirements and the electorate polls below. The forecast adjusts them to whichever poll you pick.
See Te Tai Tonga in the live forecastWhat we know
Te Pāti Māori's Ferris won by 2,824 votes (10 points) in 2023; he was later expelled and is standing as an independent. Whakaata Māori-Curia (14–24 Sep, n=500): Ramsden (Labour) 30, Murch (Te Pāti Māori) 17, Te Morenga (Green) 16, Ferris 15. MATA-Horizon (25 Sep–9 Oct) had Ferris ahead but published no figures.
Sources: Wikipedia: Te Tai Tonga electorate, The Spinoff: Te Tai Tonga poll, RNZ: MATA-Horizon poll of the Māori seats.
Why Te Tai Tonga matters
Electorate seats decide who sits in Parliament, but the party vote decides how many seats each party gets. An electorate can still change the result: it can bring in a party that's under 5%, or add overhang seats that raise the number needed to govern. The seat forecast shows how often that happens.
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