Hutt South electorate: 2026 candidates and forecast
General electorate. Held by National after the 2023 election. Voting closes on Saturday 7 November 2026.
Candidates with a realistic chance
| Candidate | Party | Chance of winning* |
|---|---|---|
| Ginny Andersen | Labour | 75% |
| Chris Bishop | National | 25% |
Also standing: Alistair Boyce (NZ First), Benjamin Wylie-van Eerd (Opportunity), Courtney White (Green), David L F Smith (Independent), Malcolm Dick (Independent), Tom Petterson (Socialist Equality).
* Our starting chances when the party vote matches the poll average, before the simulation adds polling error. They come from the 2023 result, retirements and the electorate polls below. The forecast adjusts them to whichever poll you pick.
See Hutt South in the live forecastWhat we know
National's Bishop held by 1,332 votes (3 points) in 2023. Community Engagement poll for Victor Consulting, a firm founded by a former Labour staffer (17–19 Sep, n=533): Andersen (Labour) 42, Bishop almost 30, Green 9.
Sources: 2023 result, Wikipedia: Hutt South electorate, NZ Herald: Hutt South poll, NZ Herald: The 10 battleground electorate races to watch.
Why Hutt South matters
Electorate seats decide who sits in Parliament, but the party vote decides how many seats each party gets. An electorate can still change the result: it can bring in a party that's under 5%, or add overhang seats that raise the number needed to govern. The seat forecast shows how often that happens.
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