Tāmaki electorate: 2026 candidates and forecast
General electorate. Held by ACT after the 2023 election. Voting closes on Saturday 7 November 2026.
Candidates with a realistic chance
| Candidate | Party | Chance of winning* |
|---|---|---|
| Mahesh Muralidhar | National | 53% |
| James Christmas | ACT | 42% |
| Max Harris | Labour | 5% |
Also standing: Donald Mackenzie-Mayo (Green), Finlay Smith (Independent), Ryan Earl Pausina (Independent), Sacha Haskell (Opportunity).
* Our starting chances when the party vote matches the poll average, before the simulation adds polling error. They come from the 2023 result, retirements and the electorate polls below. The forecast adjusts them to whichever poll you pick.
See Tāmaki in the live forecastWhat we know
ACT held by 4,158 votes (10 points) over National in 2023; ACT's Brooke van Velden is not standing. About 15 National ministers have campaigned for Muralidhar. The only poll was leaked with no pollster, dates or sample: Christmas (ACT) 26, Harris (Labour) 24, Muralidhar (National) 23.
Sources: Wikipedia: Tāmaki electorate, The Spinoff: leaked Tāmaki poll, NZ Herald: The 10 battleground electorate races to watch.
Why Tāmaki matters
Electorate seats decide who sits in Parliament, but the party vote decides how many seats each party gets. An electorate can still change the result: it can bring in a party that's under 5%, or add overhang seats that raise the number needed to govern. The seat forecast shows how often that happens.
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