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28 Oct, 8:07am Added the RNZ–Reid Research poll (20–26 Oct).
27 Oct, 9:49pm Electorate chances are back to the earlier figures while the new estimated-vote model is checked further. The updated seat notes and sources stay.
27 Oct, 7:15pm Every electorate's chances rechecked against the 2023 results, 2026 electorate polls and news, with sources for each seat. Safe seats are now rated as safe, so National wins more electorates than its party vote entitles it to.
27 Oct, 6:24pm Added the 1News–Verian poll released on 27 October. It's now the default.
23 Oct, 10:45am Kerrin Leoni has resigned as Labour's candidate in Tāmaki Makaurau and is now counted as an independent.
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Mount Roskill electorate: 2026 candidates and forecast

General electorate. Held by National after the 2023 election. Voting closes on Saturday 7 November 2026.

Candidates with a realistic chance

Candidate	Party	Chance of winning*
Michael Wood	Labour	52%
Carlos Cheung	National	48%

Also standing: Anjana Iyer (Green), Jamie Attenborough (Opportunity), Priyanka Deo (Animal Justice), Yang Qu (ACT).

* Our starting chances when the party vote matches the poll average, before the simulation adds polling error. They come from the 2023 result, retirements and the electorate polls below. The forecast adjusts them to whichever poll you pick.

See Mount Roskill in the live forecast

What we know

National's Cheung won by 1,564 votes (4 points) in 2023; the seat gains National-leaning Blockhouse Bay. Former MP Michael Wood is electorate-only. A poll for Wood's own campaign by Community Engagement (1–12 Oct, n=520, 12.5% unsure): Wood 47, Cheung 29.9.

Sources: 2023 result, Wikipedia: Mount Roskill electorate, NZ Herald: Michael Wood poll, 1News: The 15 seats that will decide this election.

Why Mount Roskill matters

Electorate seats decide who sits in Parliament, but the party vote decides how many seats each party gets. An electorate can still change the result: it can bring in a party that's under 5%, or add overhang seats that raise the number needed to govern. The seat forecast shows how often that happens.

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