Te Tai Tokerau electorate: 2026 candidates and forecast

Māori electorate. Held by Te Pāti Māori after the 2023 election. Voting closes on Saturday 7 November 2026.

Candidates with a realistic chance

Candidate	Party	Chance of winning*
Hūhana Lyndon	Green	48%
Willow-Jean Prime	Labour	28%
Aperahama Edwards	Te Pāti Māori	16%
Mariameno Kapa-Kingi	Te Tai Tokerau	8%

Also standing: Karl Barkley (Your PIC), Maki Herbert (Legalise Cannabis).

* Our starting chances when the party vote matches the poll average, before the simulation adds polling error. They come from the 2023 result, retirements and the electorate polls below. The forecast adjusts them to whichever poll you pick.

See Te Tai Tokerau in the live forecast

What we know

Te Pāti Māori held by 517 votes in 2023; the sitting MP, Kapa-Kingi, now leads the Te Tai Tokerau Party, and a win for her adds an overhang seat. Whakaata Māori-Curia (5–15 Oct, n=500, 22% unsure): Lyndon (Green) 24, Prime (Labour) 18, Edwards (Te Pāti Māori) 17, Kapa-Kingi 12. MATA-Horizon (25 Sep–9 Oct): Prime 27, Lyndon 23, Edwards 19, Kapa-Kingi 11.

Sources: Wikipedia: Te Tai Tokerau electorate, The Spinoff: Te Tai Tokerau poll, RNZ: MATA-Horizon poll of the Māori seats.

Why Te Tai Tokerau matters

Electorate seats decide who sits in Parliament, but the party vote decides how many seats each party gets. An electorate can still change the result: it can bring in a party that's under 5%, or add overhang seats that raise the number needed to govern. The seat forecast shows how often that happens.

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