Tāmaki Makaurau electorate: 2026 candidates and forecast
Māori electorate. Held by Te Pāti Māori after the 2023 election. Voting closes on Saturday 7 November 2026.
Candidates with a realistic chance
| Candidate | Party | Chance of winning* |
|---|---|---|
| Oriini Kaipara | Te Pāti Māori | 75% |
| Kerrin Leoni | Independent | 20% |
| Florence Te Ohaere | Green | 5% |
* Our starting chances when the party vote matches the poll average, before the simulation adds polling error. They come from the 2023 result, retirements and the electorate polls below. The forecast adjusts them to whichever poll you pick.
See Tāmaki Makaurau in the live forecastWhat we know
Te Pāti Māori's Kaipara won the 2025 by-election by 3,519 votes. Whakaata Māori-Curia (5–15 Oct, n=500): Kaipara 33, Leoni 31, Te Ohaere (Green) 21; MATA-Horizon (25 Sep–9 Oct): Leoni 38, Kaipara 30. Leoni then quit as Labour's candidate on 23 Oct; she stays on the ballot under Labour's name but says she would sit as an independent, and Labour is urging a Te Pāti Māori electorate vote.
Sources: Electoral Commission: 2025 by-election result, The Spinoff: Tāmaki Makaurau poll, RNZ: MATA-Horizon poll of the Māori seats, RNZ: Kerrin Leoni on her resignation, Te Ao Māori News: Leoni would sit as an independent.
Why Tāmaki Makaurau matters
Electorate seats decide who sits in Parliament, but the party vote decides how many seats each party gets. An electorate can still change the result: it can bring in a party that's under 5%, or add overhang seats that raise the number needed to govern. The seat forecast shows how often that happens.
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