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28 Oct, 8:07am Added the RNZ–Reid Research poll (20–26 Oct).
27 Oct, 9:49pm Electorate chances are back to the earlier figures while the new estimated-vote model is checked further. The updated seat notes and sources stay.
27 Oct, 7:15pm Every electorate's chances rechecked against the 2023 results, 2026 electorate polls and news, with sources for each seat. Safe seats are now rated as safe, so National wins more electorates than its party vote entitles it to.
27 Oct, 6:24pm Added the 1News–Verian poll released on 27 October. It's now the default.
23 Oct, 10:45am Kerrin Leoni has resigned as Labour's candidate in Tāmaki Makaurau and is now counted as an independent.
20 Oct, 7:31pm Every electorate poll is now linked on its seat card, and some poll figures were corrected.

29 Oct, 9:19am Compare polls: leave any poll out of the weighted average, or weight a pollster up, down or off.
29 Oct, 9:06am The forecast now starts from the weighted average of the polls rather than the latest single poll. Compare polls also works properly on phones.
28 Oct, 8:41am Compare polls: every poll charted by party, a weighted average that counts recent polls more and stops one pollster outweighing the rest, and settings to change it.
28 Oct, 1:41am Feedback now goes through a short form at the bottom of the page, with no account needed.
28 Oct, 12:46am A new menu bar across the site, with updates split into polls and site changes. Election night live opens with a demo until polls close, and you can add a reminder to your calendar.
27 Oct, 10:40pm New: election night live, a page that follows the count on 7 November, projects the next Parliament and helps you call each seat. Try a demo night now.

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Ikaroa-Rāwhiti electorate: 2026 candidates and forecast

Māori electorate. Held by Labour after the 2023 election. Voting closes on Saturday 7 November 2026.

Candidates with a realistic chance

Candidate	Party	Chance of winning*
Cushla Tangaere-Manuel	Labour	80%
Haley Maxwell	Te Pāti Māori	15%
Heather Te Au-Skipworth	Green	5%

* Our starting chances when the party vote matches the poll average, before the simulation adds polling error. They come from the 2023 result, retirements and the electorate polls below. The forecast adjusts them to whichever poll you pick.

See Ikaroa-Rāwhiti in the live forecast

What we know

Labour held by 2,874 votes (11 points) in 2023. Whakaata Māori-Curia poll (28 Sep–8 Oct, n=500, 20% unsure): Tangaere-Manuel (Labour) 40, Maxwell (Te Pāti Māori) 19, Te Au-Skipworth (Green) 15.

Sources: Wikipedia: Ikaroa-Rāwhiti electorate, The Spinoff: Ikaroa-Rāwhiti poll, RNZ: MATA-Horizon poll of the Māori seats.

Why Ikaroa-Rāwhiti matters

Electorate seats decide who sits in Parliament, but the party vote decides how many seats each party gets. An electorate can still change the result: it can bring in a party that's under 5%, or add overhang seats that raise the number needed to govern. The seat forecast shows how often that happens.

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