West Coast-Tasman electorate: 2026 candidates and forecast
General electorate. Held by National after the 2023 election. Voting closes on Saturday 7 November 2026.
Candidates with a realistic chance
| Candidate | Party | Chance of winning* |
|---|---|---|
| Katie Milne | National | 58% |
| Rory Paterson | Labour | 30% |
| Jamie Cleine | NZ First | 12% |
Also standing: Alex Hislop (NZ Loyal), Andrew Beaumont (Green), Cindie Uddstrom (Opportunity), Janelle Hocking (ACT), Kevin Rooke (Progressive Aotearoa), Richard Osmaston (Money Free), Sara Dyatlova–Murphy (Alliance), Sue Grey (Outdoors).
* Our starting chances when the party vote matches the poll average, before the simulation adds polling error. They come from the 2023 result, retirements and the electorate polls below. The forecast adjusts them to whichever poll you pick.
See West Coast-Tasman in the live forecastWhat we know
National held by 1,017 votes (2 points) in 2023; both main 2023 candidates have gone. Curia for the Taxpayers' Union (10–17 Sep, n=400, undecided excluded): Milne (National) 36, Paterson (Labour) 30, Cleine (NZ First) 15.
Sources: Wikipedia: West Coast-Tasman electorate, Wikipedia: 2026 electorate polls, NZ Herald: The 10 battleground electorate races to watch.
Why West Coast-Tasman matters
Electorate seats decide who sits in Parliament, but the party vote decides how many seats each party gets. An electorate can still change the result: it can bring in a party that's under 5%, or add overhang seats that raise the number needed to govern. The seat forecast shows how often that happens.
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